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现货价格大体平稳,期货震荡为主
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-07 14:32
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Spot prices are generally stable, and futures are mainly volatile. The peanut market in various regions continued to adjust weakly and steadily this week, with the price center sinking. The purchase of grassroots supplies has basically ended. The inventory level in the circulation link is not high, and the import volume of peanuts has decreased significantly year - on - year. New - season peanut planting area has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. Before the demand improves, peanut prices may remain weak, but inventory pressure is not large, and the price - holding psychology of holders will support the price decline. In the short term, spot prices are likely to fluctuate weakly within a range, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand. For futures, the medium - and short - term market should focus on the price performance at both ends of the range of 8000 - 8400, and the trend market may still need to wait [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - Spot prices are generally stable, futures are volatile. The peanut market is weak and stable, with the price center sinking. New - season peanut planting area increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. Before demand improves, prices may remain weak, but inventory pressure is small, and price - holding psychology supports the price. Short - term spot prices may fluctuate weakly, and long - term depends on weather and demand. For futures, focus on the 8000 - 8400 range [6]. 3.2 Market Review - 2.1 Overall Performance: The rebound of peanuts this week was weak, and the callback of the oil and fat sector was stronger than that of peanuts. The peanut weighted index oscillated weakly back to near the lower edge of the range, while the oil and fat sector quickly broke through the upper edge of the range, and its price callback support was stronger than that of peanuts [7][9]. - 2.2 2510 Contract: The upward movement of the peanut 2510 contract lacked momentum in terms of closing price and trading volume [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate: The weekly inventory of peanut oil was 39,410 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate of oil mills was 4.74%, a decrease of about 2.0% compared with last week [16]. - 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha): The domestic peanut market was weak, with the price center sinking. The purchase of grassroots supplies basically ended, and trading was light [20]. - 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week was 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [24]. - 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend: Peanut meal prices oscillated weakly this week, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal oscillated strongly [28]. - 3.5 Imported Peanut Quantity and Price: There were few imported peanuts. Sudanese refined peanuts were in short supply, and new peanuts had not arrived at the port. Import prices were stable, and the procurement of Senegalese supplies was limited [31]. - 3.6 Market Price Index Compared with Last Month: In the wholesale market, peanut prices were mostly negotiated, and the overall transaction price was relatively stable [35]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - 4.1 Basis Spread: The basis spread data of peanuts - Baisha is provided, but no specific analysis conclusion is given [37].