银河期货粕类日报-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market is influenced by the decline of the US soybean market, with the domestic spot market also showing signs of weakness. The rapeseed meal market has limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are falling. In the future, the US soybean may experience a phased decline, while the decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand, and the monthly spread of rapeseed meal may face pressure [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market declined significantly due to favorable weather in the production area and lack of substantial positive factors in demand. The domestic soybean meal market followed the decline of the cost side, and the domestic spot market also weakened. The rapeseed meal market had limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The balance sheet of the new US soybean crop has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policy on soybean crushing. However, there is no substantial positive factor in production and export. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has been slow, and the pressure on soybean prices is increasing. The soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased, and the profit is relatively low. The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the supply pressure of the international soybean market is mainly concentrated in South America [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, with the oil mill operating rate increasing, market supply abundant, and inventory gradually accumulating. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists. Although the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, the demand has also weakened, so the rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The negotiation between China and the United States in London has been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade situation has many uncertain factors, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to decline significantly because of the high demand for the US soybean market [7]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to the decline of the external market. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may have a negative impact on the price, and the slow selling progress in Brazil and lack of demand support may lead to a phased decline of the US soybean price. The decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face pressure, but the room for a sharp decline is limited. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by the soybean meal market, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM09 spread [9]. - Options: Take a wait - and - see approach [9].