6月金融数据前瞻：低基数效应下的季节性修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal recovery in loan issuance in June, driven by a low base effect and increased demand from banks due to performance assessments and year-end evaluations [4][6]. - It predicts that new RMB loans in June will be around 2.3-2.5 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 200-400 billion [4][6]. - The report anticipates a stable growth in social financing (社融), with an expected increase of 4-4.2 trillion in June, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 700-900 billion and a growth rate of approximately 8.9% [12][15]. - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to improve slightly in June due to the low base effect from the previous year, with M1 projected to reach around 3% and M2 expected to exceed 8% [19][20]. Summary by Sections Loan Issuance - In June, the loan issuance is expected to show a seasonal increase, with a projected total of 2.3-2.5 trillion RMB, which is a year-on-year increase of 200-400 billion [4][6]. - The manufacturing PMI for June is forecasted at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in production and new orders [4]. Social Financing - The report estimates that social financing will see an increase of 4-4.2 trillion in June, with a growth rate of about 8.9%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [12][15]. - The direct financing segment is expected to remain low, with government bonds contributing significantly to the overall financing growth [12]. Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are projected to improve due to the low base effect from last year, with M1 expected to reach around 3% and M2 anticipated to exceed 8% [19][20]. - The report notes that the shift of government deposits to residents and enterprises will further support M2 growth [20]. Credit Demand - The report indicates that corporate loans will continue to be the mainstay, with a seasonal increase in short-term loans expected in June [7]. - Retail credit is also anticipated to grow seasonally, although the improvement in consumer demand remains limited [9]. Interest Rates - The report discusses the trends in discount rates, noting a decrease in rates for various terms in June, with the 1M rate averaging around 0.81% [5][10]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with the potential for credit growth to face challenges due to insufficient effective demand and regional economic conditions [6][8].