全球股市立体投资策略周报7月第1期：美股情绪升至历史较高水平-20250707

Market Performance - Developed markets slightly outperformed, with MSCI Global up by 1.2%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 0.4%[2] - The UK 10Y government bond yield rose significantly by 16.2 basis points, while Japan's yield fell by 1.1 basis points[10] - Silver prices increased by 2.0%, leading the commodity market[10] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume generally decreased, with the S&P 500's trading volume down to 3.3 billion shares and $41.38 billion in value[24] - North American investor sentiment is at a historical high, with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 99.3%[24] - Hong Kong's short-selling ratio decreased to 11.4%, indicating a high investor sentiment level[24] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised up from 2227 to 2234 for 2025[5] - The S&P 500's earnings forecast remained stable at 264 for 2025[5] - The Eurozone STOXX50 earnings forecast was revised down from 346 to 340 for 2025[5] Economic Outlook - Global economic expectations improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. rising due to positive trade negotiations and strong employment reports[5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with 147,000 jobs added in June, lowering the unemployment rate to 4.1%[92] Liquidity Conditions - Global macro liquidity tightened, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.2 times this year, down from previous expectations[5] - The euro/dollar and yen/dollar swap basis widened, indicating slight tightening in dollar liquidity[58]