美生柴阶段性利好兑现，市场等待美生柴听证会及MPOB月报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for the US biodiesel hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Last week, rapeseed and palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of soybean oil moved down again. The passing of the 43Z Act has realized short - term benefits, and the US biodiesel policy hearing will be held on the 8th - 9th. The US has launched a new round of tariff wars globally, increasing macro - risks. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 1 - 5% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in June, a 4 - 12% increase in exports, and a slight 0.24% decrease in end - of - month inventory. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. In the US, the soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. In China, the spot trading of soybean oil is average, and there is restocking of palm oil. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with 4 new palm oil purchase contracts added in July in late June. The inventories of soybean and palm oil have increased to 960,000 tons and 540,000 tons respectively. The rebound space of CBOT soybeans is limited. In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 61% to nearly 1 million tons. Institutions expect an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, a reverse - seasonal decline in production, and a halt in inventory growth in June. Coupled with the short - term benefits of US biodiesel, BMD crude palm oil has reached the 4000 mark again. The export of Canadian rapeseed is strong, with annual exports exceeding 9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 50%. The supply of old - crop rapeseed remains tight, and the producing areas of rapeseed continue to be strong [7]. - In operation, the short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been digested. The market is waiting for the hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Coupled with the resurgence of global tariff disputes, the upward trend of rapeseed and palm oil has slowed down. For long - term unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. The spread between September rapeseed and palm oil is in the range of 1100 - 1200, and the strategy of expanding the spread should be held cautiously [8] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for relevant events. The market situation of various oils at home and abroad is analyzed, including production, inventory, and trading volume. Strategies are proposed based on the above analysis [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, domestic and foreign palm oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil all stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of Dalian soybean oil moved down [10]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - External Factors: The 45Z tax credit act has been passed, realizing short - term benefits for US biodiesel, and the market is waiting for the hearing on the 8th - 9th. The US has restarted a tariff war globally [13]. - US Soybeans: The area affected by drought in US soybeans has further shrunk, and the good - to - excellent rate remains at 66%. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 140 cents per bushel [13]. - Palm Oil: Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil production in June decreased by 1 - 5%, exports increased by 4 - 12%, and end - of - month inventory decreased slightly by 0.24%. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. Institutions estimate that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, a nearly 11 - month high [13]. - Import and Crushing: In late June, 4 new palm oil purchase contracts for July were added. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with an increase in arrivals. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate. The rapeseed crushing rate has continued to decline to a low of 40,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has stopped decreasing [13]. - Inventory: As of the end of June, the soybean oil inventory has accumulated for 9 consecutive weeks to 960,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory has dropped below 800,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 100,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory has increased significantly to 540,000 tons, completely out of the low - inventory range. The accumulation of soybean and palm oil inventories has led to an increase in the total inventory of the three major oils to 2.18 million tons, compared with 1.77 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - Spot: Last week, the spot prices of oils fluctuated as a whole. As of July 4th, the price of soybean oil was 8135 yuan per ton, a 1.15% decrease from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8635 yuan per ton, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9783 yuan per ton, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [13]. - Demand: Last week, the overall spot trading volume of oils decreased. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 32,200 tons, compared with 77,700 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2432 tons, compared with 7766 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 4000 tons in the previous week [13]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not provided in the content