资产配置日报：此消彼长-20250707

Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, with a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.43%, closing at 3965.17, indicating a divergence in market performance [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index experienced declines of 1.21% and 0.66% respectively, reflecting weakness in the innovation-driven sectors [2] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.10 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 0.35 basis points to 1.86% [2] - The issuance of new special government bonds was announced, with a 20-year bond issuance of 400 billion and a 30-year bond issuance of 830 billion, indicating a shift in supply structure [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - The photovoltaic industry chain saw price increases, with polysilicon and industrial silicon rising by 2.86% and 0.69% respectively, driven by government policy signals [3] - The black metals sector continued to show weakness, with coking coal leading the decline at 1.76% [4] Sector Performance - The electric power sector rose by 1.65%, supported by high electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [7] - The real estate index increased by 1.75%, driven by expectations of policy optimization in the Shenzhen housing market [7] - The cross-border payment index rose by 2.37%, linked to the People's Bank of China's consultation on new regulations [7] Market Dynamics - The overall market showed a significant reduction in trading volume, with total turnover at 1.20 trillion, down 227.5 billion from the previous week [6] - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with funds flowing into new narratives while other sectors like coal and pharmaceuticals faced outflows [7]