Citi(US:C)2025-07-07 15:44Investment Rating - The report forecasts China's headline exports growth at 3.3% YoY for June [1][3]. Core Insights - Shipping to the US experienced volatility but has recently rebounded, indicating a tentative trough for US-China trade may hold [1][2]. - Overall cargo throughput in China grew at a slower pace, with a 0.6% YoY increase in the week ending June 29, down from 3.6% YoY the previous week [3][7]. - Container exports from China showed a steady increase of 15.4% YoY in the week ending June 27, supported by favorable base effects [3][11]. - Concerns are rising regarding the implications of the US-Vietnam trade deal and other trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 tariff deadlines [4]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - Exports to the US saw a decline of -6.0% YoY in the 15 days ending July 2, marking the first negative reading since early June [2][14]. - US seaborne bills for imports from China contracted -32.6% YoY in the week ending June 29, compared to -23.9% YoY the week prior [2][15]. Cargo Throughput - High-frequency indicators for overall cargo throughput remained steady, with a 0.6% YoY growth reported [3][7]. - Container departures from China to non-US destinations increased, indicating a shift in trade patterns [3][8]. Tariff Considerations - The report highlights the potential impact of narrowing tariff differentials between China and the Rest of the World (RoW), which could benefit China's direct exports to the US [4]. - Tighter rules on country of origin to curb transshipment are anticipated, with the implementation details being crucial to monitor [4].