Goldman Sachs·2025-07-07 15:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products with a target price of HK$117, based on a 21x 2027E PE discounted back to 2025E, implying a 26% upside from the current price [2][30][22]. Core Insights - Anta Group's performance in June was mixed, with solid group-level topline growth driven by smaller brands and Fila, while the core Anta brand missed expectations. The projected retail sales growth for Anta is expected to decelerate to low single digits (LSD%) year-over-year in 2Q25, while Fila is anticipated to achieve high single digits (HSD%) growth [1][2][21]. - For 1H25, the report projects a 13% year-over-year increase in group sales to RMB 38.2 billion, with smaller brands and Fila performing ahead of the full-year guidance, despite a weaker core performance from Anta [1][3][21]. - The report anticipates a reported net profit of RMB 6.85 billion for Anta Group in 1H25, reflecting an 11% year-over-year decline, but a 12% increase in recurring net profit when excluding non-cash gains from the Amer listing [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth Projections - Anta Group is expected to achieve a 13% year-over-year sales growth in 1H25, with specific brand growth rates projected as follows: Anta at 5.5%, Fila at 8.4%, Descente at 44%, and other brands at 69% [3][24][27]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is projected to contract for Anta and Fila by -0.6 percentage points and -3.7 percentage points year-over-year, respectively, while GPM for smaller brands is expected to remain largely flat [3][20]. Financial Forecasts - The net income forecast for 2025-2027 remains broadly unchanged, reflecting a better outlook for Fila and smaller brands, despite a lower gross profit margin [2][22]. - The report includes detailed financial projections for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS for the years 2025 to 2027, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 80.4 billion in 2025, RMB 89.2 billion in 2026, and RMB 97.8 billion in 2027 [7][29]. Operational Metrics - The report highlights operational metrics such as operating profit margin (OPM) for Anta at 18% and for Fila at 23% in 1H25, with expectations of margin contraction due to lower gross profit margins [20][24]. - The anticipated operating expenses for 1H25 are projected to grow by 13.3%, while operating income is expected to grow by 7.5% [24][27].