高盛：ASML_在其 2025 年第二季度财报发布前，关于 ASML 的关键投资者问题

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to ASML Holding with a 12-month price target of €910, indicating an upside potential of 34.3% from the current price of €677.60 [10][13]. Core Insights - ASML's growth expectations for 2026 are supported by strong demand for leading-edge Logic and advanced Memory applications, alongside a recovery in trailing-edge spending, with a projected 8% year-over-year top-line growth [3][4]. - The sustainability of AI-related semiconductor demand is viewed positively, with expectations that AI will continue to drive demand for leading-edge chips [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of order intake, noting that ASML requires quarterly orders of €4-5 billion to meet sell-side consensus estimates for 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Key Drivers of Growth - ASML anticipates growth in 2026 driven by leading-edge Logic, advanced Memory applications (such as HBM), and a recovery in trailing-edge spending [3]. - The demand for advanced Memory remains robust, with Micron increasing its HBM capacity significantly [3][5]. AI Demand Impact - Investors are keen to understand the long-term sustainability of AI-related semiconductor demand, which has seen significant spending in recent years [4]. - Positive indicators from the AI ecosystem suggest a diversification of AI applications, supporting the demand for leading-edge semiconductors [6][7]. Order Cadence - The focus has shifted to the order intake required to meet revenue estimates for 2026, with ASML needing €4-5 billion in quarterly orders [8]. - A sequential improvement in orders could act as a positive catalyst for ASML's shares [8]. Lithography Intensity - There is an increasing interest in the trajectory of Lithography intensity as the industry transitions to Gate-All-Around architecture, with expectations of re-acceleration in layer growth post-transition [8][9]. - ASML's focus on cost-effective solutions is expected to drive growth in EUV layers across Logic and Memory applications [9].