高盛-中国的三件事

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Manufacturing PMIs in China showed improvement from May to June, with NBS manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI increasing from 48.3 to 50.4, indicating better manufacturing growth. Conversely, services PMIs declined, with NBS services PMI falling from 50.2 to 50.1 and Caixin services PMI decreasing from 51.1 to 50.6, suggesting weaker services growth in June [1][2] - Recent policy developments include a meeting chaired by President Xi on July 1, focusing on creating a unified national market to reduce local protectionism and implementing reforms to address overcapacity and deflation. Additionally, a nationwide childbirth subsidy program was announced, providing RMB3600 per child per year until the age of three, which may signal a shift in government fiscal spending priorities [3][8] - Foreign investors are currently seeking catalysts for investment in the Chinese market, with discussions revolving around US tariffs, property market conditions, and consumption weaknesses. Local investors are more focused on domestic policy implementations, while foreign investors express concerns about geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Taiwan [8] Summary by Sections - Manufacturing and Services PMIs: The report highlights a rise in manufacturing PMIs and a decline in services PMIs, indicating a shift in economic activity favoring manufacturing over services [1][2] - Policy Developments: Key policy initiatives aim to address local protectionism and overcapacity, with a new childbirth subsidy program reflecting a change in fiscal priorities [3][8] - Investor Sentiment: There is a notable divide in focus between local and foreign investors, with the former concentrating on domestic policies and the latter on macroeconomic catalysts and geopolitical risks [8]