政府债周报（7、6）：专项债发行进度近50%-20250708

Report Title - "Special Bond Issuance Progress Nearly 50% - Government Bond Weekly Report (7/6)" [1][4] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment - trading indicators [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - Actual Issuance (June 30 - July 6): Total issuance was 721.39 billion yuan, with 574.32 billion yuan in new bonds (66.00 billion in new general bonds and 508.22 billion in new special bonds) and 147.07 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (146.37 billion in refinancing general bonds and 0.7 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - Forecasted Issuance (July 7 - July 13): Total forecasted issuance is 2249.98 billion yuan, with 716.95 billion yuan in new bonds (145.02 billion in new general bonds and 571.93 billion in new special bonds) and 1533.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (828.82 billion in refinancing general bonds and 704.21 billion in refinancing special bonds) [4]. - Plan vs. Actual: The report presents a comparison of planned and actual local bond issuance in different regions and time periods [19]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - New Bond Issuance Progress: As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.50%, and that of new special bonds was 49.17% [24]. - Refinancing Bond Net Supply: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of July 6 [24]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of July 6, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 41653.80 billion yuan, with 17768.55 billion yuan in 2025 and an additional 286.32 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan [6]. - Special New Special Bonds: As of July 6, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 4865.26 billion yuan, and 16770.39 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - Primary - Secondary Spread: The report provides data on local bond primary and secondary spreads [35]. - Regional Secondary Spread: It presents secondary spreads in different regions from May 9, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [38]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the monthly investment statistics of new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [40].