综合晨报：美国总统特朗普宣布关税再度延期-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased risk aversion, a rebound in the US dollar index, and a decline in the three major US stock indexes [1][2][16]. - The capital - market equilibrium supports the strength of the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties [3][21]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and the agricultural product market is also affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [5][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump has issued tariff letters to 14 countries, with tariffs on some countries ranging from 25% to 40% and set to take effect on August 1st. Gold prices fluctuated slightly higher, and the market's panic was limited due to the possibility of negotiations before the implementation [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices remain in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Former Fed official Kevin Warsh suggested a rate cut, stating that tariffs would not cause inflation. The EU is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the US to lock in a 10% tariff rate after August 1st. Trump's tariff pressure has led to a decline in global risk appetite, a rebound in the US dollar index, and an increase in safe - haven assets [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Wash suggested a rate cut, believing that Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation. Trump postponed the tariff deadline to August 1st, but the announced tariff rates for some countries are higher than the 10% benchmark. The market maintains a risk - averse sentiment, and the impact of tariffs on corporate earnings should be noted during the earnings reporting season [18][19]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the risk of a correction in US stocks [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The capital - market equilibrium supports the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties. The impact of trade conflicts on the bond market needs further observation [20][21]. - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 1.92 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained at 66%, and the weekly export inspection report met market expectations. Domestic soybean meal inventory increased rapidly due to sufficient imports and high - capacity operation of oil mills [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The EU set a new import quota of 100,000 tons for Ukrainian sugar. Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June, a 4.91% increase year - on - year. Pakistan's sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, and the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures is limited [28][29][31]. - Investment advice: Although the production and sales data in domestic main producing areas in June were positive as expected, the market focus has shifted to processed sugar. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions increased, while that of palm oil decreased slightly. The palm oil market is relatively strong, and the soybean oil market is weak due to high - capacity operation. The strength - weakness pattern may change under certain conditions [33][34]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding the YP spread, but wait for a clear driving force and observe in the short term [34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year this year. Steel prices fluctuated slightly lower. The short - term fundamentals are relatively strong, but some spot demand comes from the covering of previous short positions. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][35][36]. - Investment advice: Spot steel should be hedged on rallies [37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on July 7 were - 111 yuan/ton, - 49 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and - 97 yuan/ton respectively. Starch is expected to gradually reduce its operating rate to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect [38]. - Investment advice: The inventory cycle of starch changes rapidly, and there are many uncertainties in the future [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Due to the import corn auction, the market sentiment was affected, corn futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. The market expects that the import auction will suppress spot prices [39]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the results of future import auctions. If the transaction rate drops significantly and the premium disappears, short positions on new crops can be lightly entered in advance [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 7, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The port has a structural shortage, but downstream demand is not strong. The price is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to changes in power plant loads and port inventories [40][41]. - Investment advice: The price of steam coal is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Shanxi [41]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01% - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils. Iron ore prices fluctuated, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of the anti - dumping ruling is limited [42]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term, as the upside of iron ore prices is limited [42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable. The supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price increase momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [43][44]. - Investment advice: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. If demand weakens, the upside of coking coal prices is limited [44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - AIXU Co., Ltd.'s 3.5 billion yuan private placement was approved. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the actual problem of over - supply has not been solved. The future price increase depends on production cuts and price increases in the downstream market [45]. - Investment advice: The futures market has factored in the impact of price - limit policies. It is recommended to observe due to high policy - related risks [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The electrode market demand is weak, and cost transfer is blocked. The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan is expected to increase. The upside of industrial silicon prices is limited, and there may be opportunities for short - selling on rallies [47][48][49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies of industrial silicon, and manage positions carefully when building positions on the left side [50]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Political conflicts in Bolivia have affected lithium - mining cooperation. Downstream demand for lithium carbonate has gradually recovered, and the supply pressure is limited. The market focus is on demand [51]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Avoid short positions for now, and wait for a better opportunity to build mid - term short positions [52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of July 7, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends. The demand from battery factories has increased, but the terminal consumption is weak. Lead prices are expected to gradually rise, and attention can be paid to buying on dips [53][54][55]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and selling put options. Observe in terms of spreads and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. The domestic zinc inventory increased. Zinc prices declined due to macro - and fundamental factors. The market is expected to be in a surplus in July - August, and attention should be paid to the return of zinc trading to fundamentals [56][57][58]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term for single - side trading. Protect previous short positions. For spreads, observe in advance for positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Maintain the idea of internal - external positive spread arbitrage in the mid - term [59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory remained unchanged on July 7. The supply of nickel ore is slightly tight, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is in surplus, and prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [60][61]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to fall further deeply, but there is no upward momentum. In the mid - term, pure nickel prices are expected to follow the cost of pyrometallurgy, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has strengthened the crackdown on illegal mining, which has led to protests. LME copper inventory has increased. Copper prices are under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and inventory increases [63][65][66]. - Investment advice: Observe in both single - side and spread trading, as copper prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Three PDH plants are planned to restart in early July. The domestic and international spot prices of liquefied petroleum gas have declined, and the market is in a weak state. The short - term outlook is affected by tariff policies [67][68]. - Investment advice: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. There is a small upside potential for international prices if buying returns after the tariff uncertainty is resolved [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day in September. Oil prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the impact of the production increase on prices was limited due to market expectations and the inability of some countries to reach the production target [69]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of July 7, the inventory of asphalt increased slightly. Asphalt futures prices fluctuated between 3,500 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the downside of asphalt futures prices is limited, with an expected upward trend [70]. - Investment advice: Asphalt futures prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [71]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of July 7, urea enterprise inventory decreased. The futures market showed different trends in different contracts. The market focus is on export quotas and supply - side changes [72]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the realization of the new export quota expectation. The 09 contract has some support before the expectation is falsified [73]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - Bottle chip factory export quotes were slightly lowered, and the market trading was light. Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if the cuts are implemented, inventory pressure is expected to be relieved [74][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by buying on dips, as the supply pressure will be relieved in the short term [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of July 7, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The market outlook for pure benzene is still weak in the second half of the year, but there may be opportunities for long - term light - position exploration [77][78]. - Investment advice: The listing price of the 2603 pure benzene contract is considered neutral. In the mid - term, the overall view is bearish, but light - position long - entry opportunities can be considered when the spread is compressed [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On July 7, the soda ash market in the Shahe area was in a volatile adjustment. The supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [79]. - Investment advice: In the mid - term, maintain the view of short - selling soda ash on rallies due to high inventory and cost reduction [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On July 7, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The factory shipment is okay, but the downstream purchasing rhythm has slowed down. The fundamentals are still weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is uncertainty in real - estate policies [80]. - Investment advice: From a single - side perspective, the risk - reward ratio of short - selling may not be high. It is recommended to consider the cross - commodity arbitrage strategy of buying glass and short - selling soda ash [81].