宏观经济专题：工业生产趋缓，地产成交趋弱

Supply and Demand - Industrial production is slowing down, with some chemical and automotive sectors experiencing a decline in operating rates[2] - Construction activity has decreased, with cement dispatch rates and oil asphalt plant operating rates falling to historical lows[2] - Building demand is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and construction materials lower than historical levels[3] Prices - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices, while copper and aluminum prices continue to rise[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a rebound[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have seen an expanded year-on-year decline, with a drop of 19% compared to 2023 and 17% compared to 2024[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes have weakened, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of 9%, 19%, and a slight increase of 5% respectively compared to 2024[5] Exports - June exports are expected to show a year-on-year increase of around 2%, with early July exports projected to rise by approximately 3%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of July 4[5] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 14,808 billion yuan in monetary policy[5]