申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250708

Core Insights - The "Beautiful Act" expands the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies [10] - The act is expected to moderately boost the US economy, benefiting traditional sectors while adversely affecting low-income groups [10] - The liquidity of US Treasury bonds remains stable, with manageable supply pressure and interest rate risks, but caution is advised regarding potential market volatility [10] Economic Effects - The "Beautiful Act" is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points from 2025 to 2034, with the maximum effect reaching 0.8% between 2026 and 2028 [10] - The act will lead to a 3.9% income decrease for the lowest 10% of households, while the highest 10% may see a 2.3% increase, indicating a redistribution trend favoring higher-income groups [10] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [10] Debt Market Insights - The supply of US Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with a projected increase in the deficit rate to around 7% next year [10] - The cumulative tariff revenue could offset 54% of the new deficit, with a long-term potential to reach $2.2 trillion over ten years [10] - The act may not trigger a debt crisis but could elevate the term premium in the bond market [10] Employment and "Involution" Analysis - The phenomenon of "involution" is primarily driven by uneven employment distribution between manufacturing and service sectors, with tariffs potentially accelerating job shifts towards services [11] - Young workers, particularly those aged 25-34, have seen a significant increase in weekly working hours, contributing to the "involution" trend [11] - Policies encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave are being implemented to address the "involution" issue, although these measures may not fully resolve the underlying causes [11] Hong Kong Stock Connect Predictions - The Hang Seng Index Company is expected to announce changes to its index constituents in August 2025, with 20 stocks likely to gain eligibility for the Hong Kong Stock Connect [14] - The selection criteria for the Hang Seng Index include market capitalization and trading volume, with a strict "high entry, low exit" policy [14] - The anticipated changes may impact existing stocks, with 13 stocks expected to be removed from the Stock Connect list [14] AI Computing Industry Insights - The IPO applications of domestic GPU companies, Muxi and Moer Thread, have been accepted, indicating a trend towards domestic autonomy in AI computing [13] - Muxi's product matrix includes various GPU series aimed at different applications, with a strong focus on compatibility and performance [15] - Moer Thread is also expanding its product offerings in AI computing and graphics, with a dual-market strategy targeting both consumer and enterprise sectors [15]