原油：或延续强势，多单持有

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that crude oil is likely to remain strong, suggesting holding long positions [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4] Core View - Crude oil is expected to continue its upward trend, and investors are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures rose $0.93 per barrel, or 1.39%, to $67.93 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $1.28 per barrel, or 1.87%, to $69.58 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures rose 10.70 yuan per barrel, or 2.13%, to 512.00 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - High - level cease - fire talks in Doha failed to reach an agreement as the Israeli negotiation team lacked sufficient authorization [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel and 2026 forecast at $56 per barrel, due to supply shortfalls and reduced idle capacity. It expects OPEC+ to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary cuts [3] - Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura are seeking government aid to maintain Australian smelters [3] - Saudi Arabia unexpectedly raised the price of its main crude grades for Asian buyers in August by a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark [3] - Indonesia proposed near - zero tariffs on 20 major US export products in tariff negotiations; Thailand's new tariff proposal imposes zero tariffs on a large number of US imports [3] - Ukrainian forces attacked a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region with long - range drones [3] - Russia's June crude oil production was still below the OPEC+ target [3] - Libya's oil revenue in H1 2025 reached 51.1 billion Libyan dinars [3] - As of the week ending July 1, crude oil speculators increased their net long positions in WTI by 8,820 contracts to 115,063 contracts [3] - HSBC says summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East is absorbing OPEC+'s additional production [3] - About 20 fighter jets dropped over 50 munitions as the Israeli military attacked Houthi armed energy facilities at night [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada is "highly likely" to build a new oil pipeline [2]