国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has been slightly digested, and steel prices have recovered, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts has significantly decreased, and subsequent registration should be monitored [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Market volatility has increased [2][15]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy changes [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,540 yuan, down 1,730 yuan from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,640 yuan, down 90 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, premiums and discounts, and profit margins in the relevant industrial chain [5]. - Macro and industry news: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,660 yuan, up 380 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5,481 hands. There were also changes in the basis, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [12]. - Macro and industry news: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental data: The Si2509 closing price was 8,045 yuan, up 65 yuan, and the PS2508 closing price was 36,515 yuan, up 1,005 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory [16]. - Macro and industry news: Trina Solar signed a component supply agreement with an Austrian company [16][18].