对二甲苯：PTA新装置投产在即，PX供需仍偏紧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX: Go for positive spread trading in calendar spreads and short PXN on rallies. With the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant scheduled for maintenance in August, the PX supply - demand pattern is tight, and positive spread trading in calendar spreads is recommended at low levels. PXN is at a high valuation with a weakening trend [9]. - PTA: Conduct reverse spread trading in calendar spreads. From mid - July, supply will gradually ease as Yisheng Hainan increases its load and Sanfangxiang's PTA plant starts production, while polyester production cuts are on the way. With supply increasing and demand decreasing, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory, so reverse spread trading in calendar spreads is advisable [9]. - MEG: Do positive spread trading in basis and calendar spreads, and avoid shorting on valuation. After the ethane bis certification is passed, the raw material supply of domestic ethane cracking plants will be sufficient again, and the 09 contract may weaken relatively, causing the calendar spread to decline significantly. However, the further downward space of the 9 - 1 spread may be limited. Overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and imports are expected to be tight in August. Although port inventory has increased recently, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the basis is still strong. Positive spread trading in the 9 - 1 spread at low levels is recommended, and going long on the single - side at low levels is advisable [9][10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The naphtha price rebounded at the end of the session, and the August MOPJ is currently estimated at $574/ton. The PX price rebounded slightly today, with an August Asian spot deal at $851 and a September Asian spot deal at $837. The PX price is estimated at $842/ton, up $2 from last Friday. The expected commissioning of Sanfangxiang's new 3.2 million - ton/year PTA plant in the third quarter has boosted market sentiment, but due to weak upstream crude oil and the expectation of supply relief, the upside potential may be limited. The operating rates of PX producers in South Korea and China seem to be rising, and Hanwha Total in South Korea will shut down its 1.2 million - ton/year PX plant for maintenance starting in August, expected to last for two months [4][6][7]. - PTA: A 2 million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to 50% at the beginning of the month and has now returned to normal operation [7]. - MEG: A 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang restarted production recently and is currently operating at near - full capacity. The port inventory of MEG in East China is about 580,000 tons, up 35,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, with the average sales volume estimated to be less than 40% as of 3:30 pm today, and the average sales volume of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is 51% as of 3:00 pm [8][9]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [9] Futures and Spot Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 6684, 4710, 4279, 6518, and 502.3 respectively. The price changes were 6672, 0, 2, 4, and - 1.2, and the percentage changes were 12, 0.00%, 0.05%, 0.06%, and - 0.24% respectively. The calendar spreads of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF8 - 9, and SC8 - 9 yesterday were 108, 70, - 26, 120, and 3.8 respectively, with price changes of 18, 10, 10, 4, and - 0.6 [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were $841.67/ton, 4790 yuan/ton, 4347 yuan/ton, $577/ton, and $71.3/barrel respectively, with price changes of $2, - 45 yuan, - 14 yuan, - 1.75 dollars, and $0.57 respectively. The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were $260.92/ton, 300.03 yuan/ton, 273.8 yuan/ton, - 479.2 yuan/ton, and - 7.42 dollars respectively, with price changes of - 10.38 dollars, 10.84 yuan, 13.7 yuan, 15.7 yuan, and 0 dollars respectively [2].