碳酸锂：短期潜在的博弈点

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recently, the fluctuations of lithium carbonate have resonated with low - priced varieties. The trading focus may return to the fundamentals of the variety after the range - bound trading of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to pay attention to the financial reports of overseas mining companies and the revision of demand expectations in the second half of the year [1]. - The current relationship between the futures market game and the fundamentals is low. In the future, the linkage between low - priced varieties will weaken, and the trading focus of lithium carbonate will return to the fundamentals of the variety. The expected game around supply and demand will affect the trend of lithium prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - From March to mid - June, lithium prices entered a new round of decline, with the main contract once reaching 58,400. In the past two weeks, the price fluctuations of lithium carbonate have resonated with low - priced varieties. As of July 4, LC2509 rebounded about 8.4% from the low point. However, the supply - demand reality of lithium carbonate remains weak. The profit of salt plants has recovered, and the domestic lithium carbonate output has remained high. In June, it increased by 8.3% month - on - month to 78,000 tons. The third - party domestic inventory has continued to rise since early June, accumulating a 5.2% increase in the past five weeks, and the inventory pressure before the peak season in the second half of the year is difficult to ease [3]. Supply: Mine Operation Adjustment - Among the global operating mines, the share of cash - loss enterprises has expanded. Lithium mines are optimizing resource allocation and seeking various financing channels to cope with operating pressure. The Marion mine in Australia is expected to receive an injection of 300 million Australian dollars, and SQM plans to lay off 5% of its employees in Chile. In 2025, no large - scale mines have withdrawn, and the cost support level is in doubt. In Q1 2025, Australian mines produced about 870,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a decrease of about 1/6 quarter - on - quarter. It is expected that the output in the second quarter will return to over 900,000 tons. Australian mining companies will announce their second - quarter reports and new fiscal - year production guidelines at the end of July, which may disturb the market [5]. Demand: Domestic Terminal Continuity - Since September last year, policies to support trade - ins have promoted automobile demand. In 2024, the sales volume driven by scrapping and replacement and local replacement was 1 million and 600,000 vehicles respectively. In the first half of this year, the terminal demand was optimistic. In June, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reached 49.8% in the first 26 weeks. However, since December 2024, the inventory of domestic new - energy vehicles has continued to rise, and the domestic new - energy vehicle inventory at the end of May was 880,000, a 115% increase compared with the same period last year. The inventory days were about 27 days, the highest this year. The domestic new - energy vehicle purchase tax policy is facing adjustment, and there are uncertainties in the domestic terminal [9][10]. Demand: Impact of the US Subsidy Cancellation - On July 1, the US Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and on July 4, President Trump signed it into law. The bill cancels subsidies for green power projects and green transportation transformation, which is a medium - and long - term negative for lithium - battery demand. However, there may be a short - term demand boost due to the rush to install before the window period ends. From September 30, 2025, the US will no longer provide a $7,500 per - vehicle federal tax credit for electric vehicles. The subsidy for residential photovoltaic projects will be cancelled at the end of 2025, and the subsidy for public utility projects will be completely cancelled at the end of 2027 [18][19].