宝城期货国债期货早报-20250708

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the weak side" respectively. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Due to recent central bank's net capital withdrawal in the open market, market liquidity has returned to a reasonable level, market interest rates have stabilized, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures has weakened. The possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the upward space of market interest rates is limited, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. Considering the need for stable macro - economic growth, a loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year, so treasury bond futures are likely to rise in the long - run. In the short - term, treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term view: "oscillation"; medium - term view: "oscillation"; intraday view: "oscillation on the weak side"; overall view: "oscillation". Core logic: The monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: "oscillation on the weak side"; medium - term view: "oscillation"; reference view: "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. After the central bank's net capital withdrawal, market liquidity normalized, market interest rates stabilized, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures weakened. The probability of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of market interest rates is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. A loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so treasury bond futures may rise in the long - run, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].