宝城期货煤焦早报-20250708

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Performance: On the night of July 7, the main coking coal contract oscillated, recording a 0.24% decline and closing at 834.5 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply and Demand: As of the week ending July 4, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons and 2.7 million tons lower than the same period last year. The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 111.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 million tons [5]. - Market Outlook: The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the supply in the production area has increased in the short term. The upward movement of futures is mainly driven by news. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the main coking coal contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. For Coke (J) - Price and Performance: On the night of July 7, the main coke contract oscillated at a low level, recording a 0.35% decline and closing at 1417.5 yuan/ton [6]. - Policy Impact: On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to rectify "involution - style competition" and guide the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Coking coal has a surplus supply, and coke has a surplus production capacity, both may be affected by this policy, but the direct impact on coke may be relatively limited [6]. - Market Outlook: The fundamental situation of coke has no obvious positive factors, but market expectations are relatively optimistic due to the positive impact of anti - involution policies. In the short term, coke futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend [6].