国新国证期货早报-20250708

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On July 7, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and sorted, closing up 0.02% at 3473.13 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.70% to 10435.51 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21% to 2130.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1208.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 219.9 billion yuan from the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index adjusted and sorted on the same day, closing at 3965.18, a decrease of 17.03 from the previous day [1] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On July 7, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1429.2, a decrease of 13.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 849.6 yuan, a decrease of 15.3 from the previous day [2][3] - For coke, due to the increase in the price of spot coking coal, some coking plants cut production at a loss, and the supply pressure of coke eased. In the short term, most coking plants can maintain a small profit, and the possibility of a significant decline in the coke operating rate is low. The downstream steel mills have stable profits, but due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, the pig iron output declined this week, and steel mills only maintained rigid - demand procurement. For coking coal, the previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the output of coking coal has increased marginally. The customs clearance level of Mongolian coal was low last week, with an average of 600 - 700 vehicles per day. After the Mongolian National Day, the customs clearance is expected to increase. In the short term, the arrival of coking coal at ports is tight. Recently, the price of domestic coal has increased, and the import profit of some coal types has been restored, and subsequent shipments may increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction of the spot quotation, the long - position liquidation suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on July 7. The contract also fluctuated slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. As of the end of June in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Yunnan Province sold 1.7511 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.3182 million tons year - on - year, with a sugar sales rate of 72.40% and an industrial inventory of 0.6676 million tons, an increase of 0.0685 million tons year - on - year. Guangxi sold 5.1406 million tons of sugar in total, an increase of 0.6144 million tons year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3308 million tons [4] Group 4: Rubber - Affected by the concern that tire re - export trade may be restricted, Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower on July 7. At night, it fluctuated in a narrow range. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival and warehousing of overseas goods at Qingdao Port decreased week - on - week last week. Some downstream enterprises began maintenance and reduced production. With the rubber price running strongly, factories had no strong purchasing sentiment. The decline rate of the port's outbound rate was less than that of the inbound rate, resulting in a slight inventory accumulation trend of Qingdao's spot inventory. As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%, and the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [5] Group 5: Palm Oil - On July 7, palm oil maintained a small - range upward oscillation within the range, closing with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 8490, the lowest was 8412, and the closing price was 8466, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.13%, and an increase of 65,000 tons compared with 473,100 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13.73% [5][7] Group 6: Soybean Meal - In the international market, on July 7, CBOT soybean futures fell. The good weather in the United States and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil pressured the prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in its weekly crop growth report that as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations. The forecast shows that warm weather and sporadic rainfall are expected in the central and western regions of the United States in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial to crop growth. In the domestic market, on July 7, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. Recently, domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supplies, and the operating rate remains high. The output of soybean meal continues to be large. After the terminal pick - up volume is limited, the inventory will continue to increase. The loose supply pressures the price of soybean meal. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price may fluctuate and adjust. In the future, focus on the arrival volume of soybeans and the domestic soybean meal inventory [7] Group 7: Live Pigs - On July 7, the live - pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract LH2509 closed at 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered. As the group pig enterprises gradually increase their slaughter volume, the willingness of retail pig farms to sell has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm of live pigs has accelerated. Currently, the terminal market is in the off - season of purchase and sales, and the rigid demand in the downstream market is insufficient, which cannot strongly support the price of live pigs. With the relatively high production capacity of breeding sows, there is still supply pressure on live pigs in the medium and long term. In the short term, focus on the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening [8] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected employment growth in the United States implies that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates immediately, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and put short - term pressure on copper prices. The domestic economy is running smoothly and steadily improving, but it faces uncertainties such as external trade. There is room for policy support, which has certain potential support for Shanghai copper. However, as the reciprocal tariff is approaching, the market may have a logic of reducing positions to avoid risks, and the copper price has adjusted. In the future, focus on the implementation of tariffs and changes in the supply - demand side [8] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of July 7, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on July 8, the minimum basis quotation of the designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous trading day [8] Group 10: Logs - On July 7, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 791, with the lowest at 785, the highest at 794.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 324 lots in open interest. Pay attention to the pressure range of 790 - 800. On the same day, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to Woodlink Information, the inventory of logs at ports increased slightly, the demand was weak, there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading was weak. Pay attention to the spot price and the support of import data for the spot [9] Group 11: Steel - On July 7, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. High - temperature warnings have been issued in many parts of the country, and affected by the typhoon in the southeast coastal areas, the demand for steel may weaken this week. If steel mills have difficulties in destocking, the steel output may also decrease, and the price of raw fuels may be under pressure again [9] Group 12: Alumina - On July 7, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3042 yuan/ton. There are both disturbances in alumina ore and pressure from new production capacity. Recently, the financial meeting proposed the news of the withdrawal of backward production capacity. In the short term, policy news guides the market to oscillate strongly. Overall, although there are short - term positive factors in the news for alumina, the oversupply pattern is still difficult to change, and the upward pressure on prices continues [9] Group 13: Shanghai Aluminum - On July 7, the al2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,410 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit and changes little. In terms of demand, the orders of terminal factories have decreased significantly in the off - season, and the high aluminum price restrains downstream procurement. The inventory of aluminum rods started to accumulate about two weeks earlier than that of aluminum ingots to confirm the inventory inflection point, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has also started to accumulate slightly recently. Whether it is an inflection point remains to be observed. The low - inventory state of aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, which plays a certain supporting role in the price [10][11]