利率债市场周观察：利差压缩之后，利率仍存突破机会

Group 1 - The report indicates that after a significant compression of interest rate spreads, there remains an opportunity for interest rates to break through their current range, with a higher probability of downward movement rather than upward reversal [4][7][13] - Historical patterns suggest that when interest rate spreads are compressed, two scenarios typically arise: either a significant rebound in interest rate bond yields or a downward breakout of interest rate bonds, leading to a widening of credit spreads [7][8] - Current conditions favor the latter scenario, supported by reduced redemption pressure on wealth management products, potential reallocation of bond funds by banks, and a stable demand for bond market investments due to a loose funding environment [9][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is currently focused on upcoming inflation and financial data releases, including June's CPI and PPI in China, as well as U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes [14][15] - There is an expected increase in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a projected issuance of 631.8 billion yuan this week, which is considered high compared to previous years [15][17] - The bond market is experiencing a continuation of the trend of compressing yields, with recent data showing slight fluctuations in yields across various maturities, indicating a lack of momentum for a downward breakout [42][43]