海通证券晨报-20250708

Group 1: Power Industry Insights - The report suggests that both electricity and coal prices are likely to rise, with electricity price increases expected to outpace coal prices. This trend may end the previous two years' pattern of declining power sector performance in the second half of the year [2][26][27] - National power load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, marking a 200 million kilowatt increase from the end of June and a 150 million kilowatt increase year-on-year. The eastern power grid accounted for 422 million kilowatts, with air conditioning loads constituting 37% [4][27] - The Ningxia-Hunan ±800 kV UHVDC project is set to enhance power supply in Hunan, with a total investment of 28.1 billion yuan and a transmission capacity of 8 million kilowatts, expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours annually [5][28] Group 2: Capital Market Transformation - The report emphasizes the necessity for capital transformation to match economic restructuring, highlighting the role of government-led funds and patient capital in supporting innovation-driven growth [7][8] - The scale of the primary market has reached approximately 10 trillion yuan, growing rapidly, which presents five key opportunities for secondary market investors, including the need for research-based exit strategies and the increasing importance of mergers and acquisitions [9] - Successful overseas experiences in venture capital are boosting confidence in China's economic transformation, with a focus on integrating government and market-driven approaches [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate sector, recommending several companies across different categories, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development [15][35] - In the first half of 2025, land transaction prices outperformed transaction volumes, with a notable structural divergence favoring first- and second-tier cities. The average land transaction price increased by 30.3% year-on-year [16][36] - The average premium rate for land transactions in first-tier cities was 10.7%, reflecting a 6.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by local governments increasing the supply of quality land [17][37]