铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250708

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff measures have triggered risk aversion in the market, with the US stock market falling, the US dollar index rising, and gold prices rebounding while copper prices weakening [2]. - The domestic economic fundamentals continue the pattern of "low inflation, weak recovery", and the A - share market may maintain a pattern of shrinking - volume shock adjustment in the short term [3]. - Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the prices of precious metals may fluctuate more significantly in the short term, and the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and other metals may face downward pressure in the short term [4][6][8]. - The prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may enter a shock pattern in the short term, and the price of nickel may be weakly volatile [15][17][19]. - The oil price is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the steel price and iron ore price may be in a shock pattern [20][21][23]. - The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil may be in a shock pattern in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump signed an executive order to postpone the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9 to August 1 and notified 14 countries of significant tariff increases. The market risk - appetite declined significantly, the US stock market fell nearly 1%, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.38%, and the US dollar index showed strength [2]. - Domestic: The economic fundamentals continue the "low - inflation, weak - recovery" pattern. The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment, and the bond market is affected by supply - side issuance increments and real - estate policy expectations [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices recovered their decline due to Trump's tariff increase on Japan and South Korea. COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. Tariff uncertainty may increase short - term price volatility [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper fell from a high level due to tariff disturbances. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market was inactive, and the LME inventory rebounded. The US tariff increase on Japan and South Korea and other factors may lead to a short - term correction of copper prices [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices adjusted from a high level due to tariff concerns and an increase in warehouse receipts. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and short - term prices may be under pressure [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices were in a strong - biased shock. The spot prices at home and abroad rebounded, and the futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased. However, supply surplus and rigid consumption may limit the upward space in the medium term [10]. Zinc - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar and accelerated inventory accumulation. The supply was stable and at a high level, and downstream orders were insufficient in the off - season [11]. Lead - Lead prices had limited corrections supported by the expectation of improved consumption. Although there was an expectation of inventory accumulation, the overall inventory level was not high [12]. Tin - Tin prices corrected from a high level. The supply increased marginally as refineries resumed production, and the downstream was in the off - season with insufficient purchases at high prices [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply side was weak, and the demand side was mixed. Policy support enhanced market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals may limit the upward trend [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices may correct in the short term. The price increase boosted supply, the market inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot market was relatively cold [17][18]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. The tariff exemption period was approaching, and the macro - level was uncertain. The cost pressure of nickel - iron plants was not relieved, and stainless steel was sluggish [19]. Crude Oil - Oil prices were weakly volatile. The geopolitical risk was gradually subsiding, and OPEC +'s production - increase plan was accelerating, but the peak consumption season supported the current fundamentals [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel prices were in a shock pattern. The supply - demand data was stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slowly accumulating. The market was affected by Trump's tariff measures [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were in a shock - adjustment pattern. The arrival at ports increased, and the overseas shipment decreased. The demand from blast furnaces in Tangshan was weakening [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal may be in a shock pattern. The US soybean crop rating was good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The trade concern re - emerged [24][25]. Palm Oil - Palm oil prices were relatively resistant to decline. The trade concern re - emerged, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the early days of July, providing support on the demand side [26][27]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the trading data of various metal futures contracts on July 7, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [28]. Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and other metals, such as inventory, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price differentials [30][33][35].