中信期货晨报：国内商品期货大面积收跌，鸡蛋跌幅居前-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are concerns in the US employment market, with an increase in the proportion of permanent unemployment and continued rise in continuing jobless claims, along with slowing wage growth. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may have limited long - term economic boost but will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years [5]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti - involution" policy combined with low prices has driven short - term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities have improved. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed rate - cut bets, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit. There are concerns in the employment market [5]. - Domestic: Economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has led to short - term rebounds in some commodities, and the June PMI data shows improvement [5]. - Asset Outlook: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas risks such as tariff frictions should be watched. A strategic allocation to gold is recommended [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [7]. - Overseas: Inflation expectations are flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling [7]. - Stock Index Futures: Anti - involution competition is boosting policy expectations, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [7]. - Stock Index Options: A defensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bond market sentiment is warming up, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: Supply disturbances are increasing, and the market is showing strength, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore production is decreasing, and port inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Coke: Fundamentals are improving, and cost support is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Coking Coal: Supply is slowly recovering, and upstream inventories are decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Silicon Iron: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is strongly rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the market is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Glass: Far - month expectations are being repaired, and inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Soda Ash: Supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: LME inventories are low, and copper prices are high, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Alumina: The "anti - involution" policy has stimulated market sentiment, and the market has risen strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Aluminum/Zinc: Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly, with short - term outlooks of volatility and volatile decline respectively [7]. - Lead: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Nickel: The industrial product market is improving, and nickel prices are strong in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [7]. - Stainless Steel: Market sentiment is boosting, and the market is rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Tin: Supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, lithium prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - LPG: The market is trading based on loose fundamentals, and the PG market may be weakly volatile, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - Asphalt: OPEC+ over - production in August has weakened asphalt futures prices, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: OPEC+ over - production has strengthened the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - high sulfur spread is rebounding, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - Methanol: The Taicang price is weakening, and methanol is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Urea: The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate in the short term, relying on exports [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - PX: Crude oil is stable, and PX is oscillating strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the cost of PX is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Short - Fiber: The basis is falling, and processing fees are rising, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - Bottle Chips: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - PP: Important meetings have boosted market expectations, and PP is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Plastic: The "anti - involution" policy has slightly boosted the market, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Styrene: There is a lack of driving factors, and styrene is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - PVC: Low valuation and weak supply - demand, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Caustic Soda: The spot market is weakly stable, and caustic soda is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The market was weakly volatile yesterday, and palm oil is more resistant to decline, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - Protein Meal: Supply pressure dominates, and the spot market is leading the decline, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Corn/Starch: The market sentiment is poor, and the market is in a weak adjustment, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Rubber: After a decline, it has stabilized, with limited downward space in the short term, and a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: Weak raw materials have dragged down the market, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Pulp: The market is in a stalemate, and the downward trend has not been confirmed to end, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are in a new round of oscillation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Sugar: There is a lack of positive factors, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - Timber: Spot digestion is limited, and the market is still weakly operating in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9].