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铅锌日评20250708:区间整理-20250708
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-08 02:57

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For lead, due to no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, stable increase in primary lead production, and high costs and low production in the secondary lead sector, along with the transition from the off - season to the peak season in demand, lead prices are expected to oscillate upwards but with limited upside due to inventory accumulation risks [1]. - For zinc, with sufficient raw material reserves in smelters, improved supply of zinc concentrates, and weak downstream demand, zinc prices have rebounded recently but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the disappearance of positive factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price and Market Data - Lead: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; futures main contract closing price was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price was 2,057 dollars/ton; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.37, down 0.49% [1]. - Zinc: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; futures main contract closing price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 1.43%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price was 2,735.5 dollars/ton; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.08, down 1.43% [1]. b. Inventory - Lead: As of July 7, SMM lead ingot five - location inventory was 5.79 million tons, up 0.15 million tons from June 30 and 0.1 million tons from July 3 [1]. - Zinc: As of July 7, SMM zinc ingot seven - location inventory was 8.91 million tons, up 0.85 million tons from June 30 and 0.67 million tons from July 3 [1]. c. Production News - The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun 600,000 - ton lead - zinc smelting project, built by China Wuye Group, has been put into production. After reaching full capacity, it can process 2.5 million tons of lead - zinc ore annually, producing 560,000 tons of zinc ingots and 110,000 tons of lead ingots [1]. d. Market Analysis - Lead: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, primary lead production is stable, and secondary lead production is limited by high costs. Demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season [1]. - Zinc: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw materials, zinc concentrate supply has improved, and downstream demand is weak, mainly for just - in - time replenishment [1].