股债维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the financial derivatives market is that stocks and bonds will maintain a volatile trend. In the short - term, all three markets of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures should be dealt with using a volatile mindset [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the All - A Index fluctuating less than 0.4%. Real estate and public utilities led the gains, while telecommunications and healthcare led the losses. There were 76 daily limit stocks, concentrated in concepts such as electricity and stablecoins. - Recently, the market has shown a trend of decreasing trading volume. Uncertainty from tariff news and profit - taking sentiment due to the decline of previous hot sectors have affected market confidence. In the short - term, it should be treated as a volatile market, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month contract basis points closed at - 20.17, - 17.93, - 41.21, and - 59.94 respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.77, - 0.49, - 3.97, and - 9.74 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts were 17.6, 5.2, 54.8, and 79.2 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.4, - 0.6, 1.6, and 3.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 22721, - 11893, - 15589, and - 30422 hands [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Considering that some underlying assets reached local highs last week, there is a high risk of a phased correction at the beginning of this week. Although the underlying assets showed signs of correction, the amplitude was low yesterday, and the liquidity at the beginning of the week was weak, decreasing by more than 50% compared to last Friday. - The volatility of ChiNext ETF and 500ETF decreased significantly. For ChiNext ETF, the put - side volatility led the decline, indicating short - term put - position closing. For 500ETF options, the put - side increased while the call - side volatility decreased, suggesting a sign of building a collar strategy. - The sentiment of trading - type funds is neutral, and there is still an adjustment risk in the short - term. For volatility trend strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities when volatility spikes. In terms of varieties, 50 and 300ETF options have a higher safety margin. The main strategy should maintain covered calls to enhance returns in a volatile environment [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The T main contract opened slightly higher and strengthened, then adjusted with a decline in open interest, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment among market bulls. It rebounded in the afternoon but still maintained a low - level oscillation overall. - The central bank net - withdrew more than 200 billion yuan yesterday, and the overnight repurchase rate slightly increased, indicating that the capital interest rate may be bottoming out, which may cause some disturbances to the cash - bond market. - However, the June manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, and tariff policies are still uncertain. New factors such as the introduction of new quantitative regulations in the stock market may also affect risk appetite. Therefore, the bond market may also be supported, and a volatile mindset should be adopted in the short - term [3]. - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 49192, 59821, 35462, and 55668 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 11647, 16847, 9275, and - 15984 hands. The open interest was 216298, 157986, 115517, and 122562 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 2158, 81, - 1682, and - 16 hands [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual growth rate of retail sales in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast value of 1.2%. - On July 9, China will release the annual growth rate of CPI and PPI in June, with forecast values of 0% and - 3.2% respectively. - On July 10, China will release the annual growth rate of M2 money supply in June, with a forecast value of 8.2%, as well as the cumulative new RMB loans and social financing scale in June [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched today and successfully raised funds, approaching or exceeding the 3 - billion - yuan fundraising limit. After their establishment, they are expected to bring 30 billion yuan in new scale, and the scale of bond ETFs will soon exceed 400 billion yuan. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan". The first press conference will be held on July 9. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that many positions in the negotiation have changed, and multiple new proposals were received last night. He expects to announce trade - related news within 48 hours. He announced that the overall tariff on Vietnam will be increased to 20%, and that the positions of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will follow the president's wishes [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text.