国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it is greatly affected by international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking driving forces [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Due to trade concerns and the decline of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate weakly [2][15]. - Soybean: Affected by the weak atmosphere in the surrounding market, the market may fluctuate weakly [2][15]. - Corn: It will fluctuate weakly [2][18]. - Sugar: It will be range - bound [2][21]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and their impacts [2][24]. - Eggs: The expectations are running ahead, and the reality is following [2][28]. - Live pigs: Attention should be paid to the sentiment of the new round of speculative realization [2][30]. - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [2][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,466 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change, and the night - session closing price was 8,482 yuan/ton with a 0.19% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 7,894 yuan/ton with a - 0.63% change, and the night - session closing price was 7,870 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change. Rapeseed oil's daily - session closing price was 9,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.61% change, and the night - session closing price was 9,492 yuan/ton with a - 0.59% change [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From July 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 213,055 tons, a 31.59% increase from the same period last month. Indian officials called for an increase in palm oil import tariffs and a minimum guaranteed price. Up to 500 million tons of palm - based residues and biomass in Southeast Asia can be used to produce sustainable aviation fuel [5][8]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [13]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4079 yuan/ton with a - 54 (- 1.31%) change, and the night - session closing price was 4073 yuan/ton with a - 18 (- 0.44%) change. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 2937 yuan/ton with a - 25 (- 0.84%) change, and the night - session closing price was 2933 yuan/ton with a - 15 (- 0.51%) change [15]. - Macro and Industry News: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the same as expected and the previous week, and lower than 68% in the same period last year. Brazil exported 1,917,950.97 tons of soybeans in the first week of July. Argentina will export 30,000 tons of soybean meal to China for the first time. On July 7, CBOT soybean futures closed at a two - week low due to favorable weather in the US Midwest and trade concerns [9][15][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is - 1 (only referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day - session of the reporting day) [17]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2509 was 2,326 yuan/ton with a - 1.36% change, and the night - session closing price was 2,321 yuan/ton with a - 0.21% change. The closing price of C2511 was 2,283 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% change, and the night - session closing price was 2,378 yuan/ton with a 4.16% change [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, while the prices in Northeast China and North China mostly declined. The prices of imported sorghum and barley were also reported [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [20]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 16.25 cents/pound with a - 0.12 change. The mainstream spot price was 6050 yuan/ton with a - 20 change. The futures main - contract price was 5754 yuan/ton with a - 15 change [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's exports in June increased by 5% year - on - year. China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [21][22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [23]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,760 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and the night - session closing price was 13720 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. The closing price of CY2509 was 19,955 yuan/ton with a - 0.22% change, and the night - session closing price was 19910 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was still dull. ICE cotton futures fell nearly 1% due to concerns about US tariff policies and good growth conditions of US cotton [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of eggs 2508 was 3,449 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 3.74% change. The closing price of eggs 2510 was 3,360 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.81% change [28]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [28]. 3.7 Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 14980 yuan/ton with a - 200 change. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14245 yuan/ton with a - 60 change [31]. - Market Logic: The current market has entered the expected trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment. The consistent bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - end sentiment. The spot price has continued to strengthen, and the futures market has repaired the basis. However, the futures price has offered hedging profits, increasing the game. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July. Attention should be paid to the subsequent spot performance. The support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [33]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [32]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,000 yuan/ton with a - 100 change. The closing price of PK510 was 8,098 yuan/ton with a - 1.46% change [35]. - Spot Market Focus: The remaining peanuts in the production areas are almost exhausted, and most are selling inventory. The prices in some white - sand peanut production areas are weakly stable, and the prices in large - peanut production areas are stable [36]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37].