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五矿期货早报有色金属-20250708
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-08 03:26

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment due to factors such as the delay of interest - rate cut expectations and uncertain trade situations, with the domestic refined copper production expected to remain high in July and downstream demand being weak [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Although the aluminum ingot inventory is at a low level, the supply of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season, so the inventory accumulation in July may be higher than last year [3]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the suppression of weak domestic consumption [4]. - The zinc price is under pressure to decline because of high expectations of zinc ingot supply, significant inventory accumulation, and the ebb of the commodity bullish atmosphere [5]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. There is a short - term shortage of tin ore supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited [6][7]. - The nickel price has limited upward space. With the supply exceeding demand, it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The lithium carbonate price has limited upward space. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to the return to the fundamentals after the range - bound trading [10]. - The alumina futures price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall commodity market sentiment [12]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to the off - season of consumption and slow inventory reduction [14]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy has strong upward resistance. Under the off - season background, the supply and demand are both weak, and the price mainly follows the cost end [16]. Summary by Metals Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.69% to $9784/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2125 to 97400 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.9%. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 10000 tons over the weekend, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. The import of domestic copper spot suffered a loss of about 1100 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed down 1.31% to $2563/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the aluminum bar inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee rebounded, but the spot trading was still not smooth. LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 37.1 million tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 2.2% [3]. Lead - On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.48% to 17212 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 19 to $2043.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.48 million tons. The primary supply is at a high level, the secondary supply is in short supply, and the lead - acid battery price has stopped falling and stabilized [4]. Zinc - On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.41% to 22049 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 50 to $2695.5/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 8.91 million tons. The supply of zinc ore is at a high level, and the TC is rising [5]. Tin - On July 7, 2025, the tin price fell with the non - ferrous sector. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 263520 yuan/ton, down 1.40%. The domestic supply of tin ore is in short supply in the short term, and the terminal demand is in the off - season [6][7]. Nickel - On Monday, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120540 yuan/ton, down 1.41%, and the LME main contract closed at $15130/ton, down 0.85%. The supply of nickel exceeds demand, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat with the previous day. The LC2509 contract closed at 63660 yuan, up 0.60%. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upward space is limited [10]. Alumina - On July 7, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 3028 yuan/ton. The spot price in each region remained unchanged. The import window is closed. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall commodity market sentiment [11][12]. Stainless Steel - On Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12640 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The social inventory decreased to 115.68 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract closed down 0.78% to 19750 yuan/ton. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased to 2.27 million tons. The price has strong upward resistance [16].