Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, Treasury bonds are rebounding narrowly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Coal and Steel - Some shut - down coal mines in Linfen will resume production one after another. Under the "anti - involution", the supply of finished steel is expected to shrink, the futures market rebounds, and raw materials follow the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policies and demand follow - up [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump extends the tariff suspension period, and the proposed tax rate increase triggers a resurgence of market risk aversion. The market postpones the earliest time for the Fed to cut interest rates to October. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes this week. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [3] Group 4: Logs - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will shift down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume remains at about 67,000 cubic meters, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas is improving, rubber tapping work is gradually resuming. The demand for glue series is dragging down, showing a divergence from the price of raw material cup lumps. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining. The supply - demand contradiction at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [4] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated planting area of US soybeans is only slightly reduced, the continuous improvement of weather in the US Midwest boosts the soybean production outlook, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the提货量 of oil mills has declined, the bean meal inventory has risen rapidly, and bean meal is in a weak and volatile state [5] Group 7: Oil - related Products - Against the background of geopolitical easing and production increase, oil prices still lack strong positive factors. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA's supply - demand outlook weakens and it follows cost fluctuations in the short term; MEG's supply - demand weakens and the futures market is under pressure [6] Group 8: Live Pigs - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding end is strong, the shipment of live pigs in many northern regions is smooth, and the pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the supply of live pigs in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [7]
今日观点集锦-20250708
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-08 03:27