五矿期货文字早评-20250708

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing the financial and commodity markets. - In the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices. - In the bond market, it is advisable to enter the market at low prices as interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. - In the precious metals market, a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained due to the expected easing of the Fed's policy. - In the metal market, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are in a state of complex supply - demand and price fluctuations, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - Macro News: Trump threatens to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries; Changxin Storage starts the listing guidance; Guojin Securities' Hong Kong subsidiary prepares to apply for virtual asset trading licenses; the eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index reaches a new high [2]. - Futures Basis Ratio: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH futures contracts [3]. - Trading Logic: Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East decline, and the market risk appetite recovers. Domestically, economic data in May is stable, and policies are introduced to support the market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures long at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Quotes: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined to varying degrees [5]. - News: China's foreign exchange reserves increased in June; Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries supporting BRICS' anti - US policies [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy: Considering the economic data and policy support, it is expected that interest rates will decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices [6]. Precious Metals - Market Quotes: Shanghai gold rose 0.36%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.19%. COMEX gold rose 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% [7]. - Market Outlook: The US fiscal and monetary policies are the core drivers of precious metal prices. It is expected that the Fed will ease its policy in the second half of the year, and a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper fell 0.69%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. - Industry Situation: LME inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose. In China, social inventory increased, and the spot premium changed. The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment [10]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: LME aluminum fell 1.31%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. - Industry Situation: Aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11]. Zinc - Market Quotes: Shanghai zinc index fell 1.41%, and LME zinc fell 50 to 2695.5 dollars/ton. - Industry Situation: Zinc ore supply is high, and the zinc price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and the decline of the long - short structure [12][13]. Lead - Market Quotes: Shanghai lead index fell 0.48%, and LME lead fell 19 to 2043.5 dollars/ton. - Industry Situation: The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The lead price is relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [14]. Nickel - Market Quotes: Shanghai nickel fell 1.41%, and LME nickel fell 0.85%. - Industry Situation: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. The price difference between refined nickel and nickel iron is high, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [15]. Tin - Market Quotes: Shanghai tin fell 1.40%. - Industry Situation: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Quotes: The spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.60%. - Industry Situation: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The lithium price has limited upward space, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand expectations and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - Market Quotes: The alumina index rose 0.15%. - Industry Situation: The alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to policy and production reduction risks [18]. Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.71%. - Industry Situation: It is in the consumption off - season, and the supply - demand excess pattern is difficult to reverse. The spot market is expected to be weak [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The AD2511 contract fell 0.78%. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are weak, and the price is affected by the aluminum price. The upper resistance is large [20][21]. Black Construction Materials Steel - Market Quotes: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - Industry Situation: The export is under pressure due to the anti - dumping policy. The supply - demand situation of rebar and hot - rolled coil is different, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies, demand, and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The iron ore main contract fell 0.20%. - Industry Situation: The supply and demand of iron ore are affected by multiple factors. The price is in a wide - range shock, and it is necessary to control risks [25][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The glass price rebounded, and the soda ash price was stable. - Industry Situation: Glass is affected by policies, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling. Soda ash has large inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes: Manganese silicon fell 0.04%, and ferrosilicon was flat. - Industry Situation: The industry is over - supplied, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short at high prices for hedging positions [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.81%. - Industry Situation: Supply is over - supplied, and demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU adjusted downward. - Industry Situation: The tire industry has a neutral start - up rate, and the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be long - term bullish in the second half of the year and neutral in the short - term [39][40]. Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all declined. - Industry Situation: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. Methanol - Market Quotes: The 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - Market Quotes: The 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton. - Industry Situation: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities at low prices [45]. Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price rose, and the futures price fell. - Industry Situation: The cost is sufficient, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [46]. PVC - Market Quotes: The 09 contract fell 14 yuan. - Industry Situation: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are both expected to decline, and it is recommended to short at high prices [50]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract was flat. - Industry Situation: Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [51]. Para - Xylene - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose 12 yuan. - Industry Situation: The overhaul season is over, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price fell. - Industry Situation: The price is expected to fluctuate due to inventory and demand factors [53]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price fell. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Quotes: The domestic pig price fluctuated. - Industry Situation: The pig price may stop falling and rise slightly. The short - term long - position has space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [56]. Eggs - Market Quotes: The national egg price mostly declined. - Industry Situation: The egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in others. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [57][58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Quotes: US soybeans fell 2.75%, and domestic soybean meal spot fell. - Industry Situation: The soybean import cost is stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to trade policies [59][60]. Oils and Fats - Market Quotes: Domestic oils and fats fluctuated. - Industry Situation: The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a shock [62][63]. Sugar - Market Quotes: Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated, and the spot price declined. - Industry Situation: Brazilian sugar exports increased, and the domestic sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - Market Quotes: Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. - Industry Situation: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [65].