五矿期货贵金属日报-20250708

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factor for precious metal prices in the medium - term is the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations. The Fed's marginal easing in the second half of the year is certain, and a long - position approach should be maintained for silver prices [2]. - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will ultimately yield to the continuous development of the US fiscal situation. The Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in the July meeting but show a marginal dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting [3]. - Against the backdrop of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be focused on the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US wide - fiscal expectation. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 775.68 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.19% to 8916.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.08% to 3345.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.17% to 36.97 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.4%, and the US dollar index was 97.37 [2]. - For various precious metal products, there were different daily changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the trading volume of COMEX Gold increased by 184.71% compared to the previous period, while the open interest decreased by 1.42% [6]. 2. Policy Expectations - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes the Fed will cut interest rates twice in the remaining time of this year. Trump's trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed to intervene in Powell's stance. Fed Governor Warsh also believes the Fed should cut interest rates [2]. 3. Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. For example, Chart 11 shows the relationship between COMEX Gold price (dollars/ounce) and the real interest rate (%) [11]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences on July 7, 2025 [48].