光大期货金融期货日报-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the policy helps promote enterprise technological innovation, industrial upgrading of new - quality productivity, and long - term profitability repair of enterprises, but relevant sectors may face pressure during the elimination of backward production capacity, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The overall view is that the market will be volatile [1] - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is in an environment of loose funds, stable economy, and low short - term interest rate cut expectations, with insufficient upward and downward momentum, and is expected to continue a volatile trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: On July 1st, policies such as the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and the release of an article in Qiushi magazine were introduced. These policies are beneficial for long - term corporate profitability and A - share investment returns, but relevant sectors may face short - term pressure, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The market is expected to be volatile [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 8th, treasury bond futures closed with some declines. The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan. The capital market is loose, and the economy is stable. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: From July 4th to July 7th, IH decreased by 9.2 points (- 0.34%), IF decreased by 18.0 points (- 0.46%), IC decreased by 15.0 points (- 0.26%), and IM decreased by 0.6 points (- 0.01%) [2] - Stock Indexes: From July 4th to July 7th, the Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 8.9 points (- 0.33%), the CSI 300 decreased by 17.0 points (- 0.43%), the CSI 500 decreased by 11.0 points (- 0.19%), and the CSI 1000 increased by 14.9 points (0.24%) [2] - Treasury Bond Futures: From July 4th to July 7th, TS decreased by 0.006 points (- 0.01%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (- 0.03%), T increased by 0.005 points (0.00%), and TL decreased by 0.05 points (- 0.04%) [2] 3.3 Market News - China's foreign exchange reserves in June were 3.317422 trillion US dollars, higher than the expected 3.3 trillion US dollars and the previous value of 3.28526 trillion US dollars [3] - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, and it was the 8th consecutive month of gold purchases [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9] - Treasury Bond Futures: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17] - Exchange Rates: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and consulting qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and consulting qualification number Z0019537 [27]