光大期货软商品日报-20250708

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on July 8, 2025, ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.88% to 67.86 cents per pound, and CF509 fell by 0.22% to 13,760 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2,264 lots to 543,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,176 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,201 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with the U.S. cotton price falling after the holiday. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price is mainly range - bound with limited upward drive. The previous drivers of the upward trend were low inventory and weather disturbances, but now there is a strong expectation of a good cotton harvest, and the operating load of downstream textile enterprises is relatively low. It is expected that the commercial cotton inventory at the end of September will be relatively healthy, and the cotton price lacks continuous upward drive. Overall, the short - term cotton price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [1]. - For sugar, Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June 2025, an increase of 157,300 tons or 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 20 - 30 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan by 10 yuan per ton. The mainstream quotation of sugar refineries also decreased. Brazil's sugar exports remained high in June, and China is one of the important buyers. It is expected that China's sugar imports will remain high in July and August. With the arrival of imported sugar, the spot sugar price is under slight pressure. More attention should be paid to the quotation of refined sugar, which will have a greater influence in the future. The main futures contract is currently considered to be in a weak - range - bound situation, but it is not recommended to continue to short the far - month contracts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 0 (unchanged), the main contract basis is 1,441 yuan (up 21 yuan). The arrival price in Xinjiang is 15,176 yuan per ton (up 6 yuan), and the national price is 15,201 yuan per ton (up 1 yuan) [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 160 yuan (down 22 yuan), the main contract basis is 336 yuan (down 5 yuan). The spot price in Nanning is 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On July 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,039 (down 28), and the valid forecast was 260. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,176 yuan per ton, Henan 15,273 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,172 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,420 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.4 (down 0.4), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6 (up 0.6), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.8 (unchanged), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4 (up 0.1) [3]. - Sugar: On July 7, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 23,404 (down 20), and the valid forecast was 106 [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 9 - 1 spread, the internal - external price difference under the 1% tariff quota, the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the price index [6][9][11][14][17].