有色商品日报（2025年7月8日）-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.69% decline to $9,784 per ton, and SHFE copper主力 fell 0.15% to 79,390 yuan per ton. There are concerns about a resurgence of trade tensions, and inventories at LME, Comex, and in the domestic market have increased. Short - term copper prices may be weak but the downside may be limited. Low inventories at home and abroad, along with domestic import losses and the discount pattern, are favorable for the bulls [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended strongly, while Shanghai aluminum trended weakly. There are both ore disturbances and new production pressures in alumina. With news of the exit of backward production capacity, the short - term policy may guide the market to fluctuate strongly. There is a marginal game between weakening electrolytic aluminum demand and low - delivery products. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.85%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.39%. In the stainless - steel industry chain, although there is production reduction, the overall inventory remains high. In the new - energy industry chain, the demand for nickel sulfate in July increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: LME copper prices declined overnight, and SHFE copper also fell. Concerns about trade tensions and increased inventories have put pressure on copper prices. However, low inventories and import losses support the bulls [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina showed a strong trend, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There are complex factors in the alumina market, and the short - term policy may drive the market. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and Shanghai nickel prices fell. In the stainless - steel and new - energy industries, the situation is mixed. In the short term, it will fluctuate, and overseas policies need attention [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On July 7, 2025, compared with July 4, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 640 yuan per ton, and the inventory at LME and Comex increased [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - Aluminum: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory at LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,500 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - Zinc: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.7%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. - Tin: The主力 settlement price decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [11][14][16]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous metals research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [45]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [45]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [46].