Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to weigh on the basis and near - month futures prices. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of destocking for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contracts is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall, and the overall downside space of the futures prices is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On July 7th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 3 with a change of 7, in Tianjin it was - 57 with a change of - 3, in Rizhao it was - 107, in Zhangjiagang it was - 137 with a change of - 3, in Dongguan it was - 117 with a change of 17, in Zhanjiang it was - 67 with a change of 17, and in Fangcheng it was - 87 with a change of 17. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 79 with a change of 8 [4]. - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, along with their historical trends and current values. For example, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 358, and the futures spread of the main contracts was 320 [5]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1747, the soybean CNF premium, and the import soybean futures gross profit and crushing profit are provided. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 86%, lower than the same period last year, and short - term temperature and rainfall show no significant abnormalities [5]. - Chinese port soybean inventories and major domestic oil mill soybean inventories have increased to high levels. The major domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories are accelerating the accumulation, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are rising [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The May customs soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at high levels, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. - Demand: From the perspective of livestock inventory, the pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The soybean meal trading volume fluctuates [6].
蛋白数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-08 05:12