生猪日报：期价震荡偏弱-20250708

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience an oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing obvious price drops. It is not recommended to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - After the recovery of the slaughter volume, the spot price has recently oscillated downward, and the LH2509 contract has also adjusted weakly [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 3,761 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,245 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices indicating a less loose supply - demand situation than the short - side believes, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market shows demand support, preventing obvious price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to low slaughter volume. If the slaughter returns to normal, the price increase is likely unsustainable, so chasing long is not recommended [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on July 7 was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from July 4 [6]. - The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% to 15.07 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.41 yuan/kg [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, and 07 contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.11% to 1.59%, while the 09 and 11 contracts decreased by 0.42% and 0.26% respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan decreased by 190 yuan/ton or 18.72% to 825 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 and 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].