宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil supply-demand outlook is poor, and the supply glut expectation weighs on oil prices. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the risk premium has been fully reversed. The PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PTA will see new capacity come on stream in the third quarter, creating a timing mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on the presence of more unexpected supporting factors. The PTA market is bearish due to the increase in PTA capacity utilization rate and the reduction in production by downstream polyester factories. The PTA inventory is in a downward trend in absolute terms but at a near-five-year high in relative terms, and the situation of near-term strength and long-term weakness is hard to change. The polyester industry chain is less affected by macro factors and returns to fundamental-driven, with weakening supply-demand expectations leading to a full decline in prices. If the polyester production cut deepens, PTA will be relatively weaker. The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has tilted back towards the raw material segment due to the strong cost-side drive. PTA's own fundamentals have weakened month-on-month but without inventory accumulation, and it is expected to follow the cost side in a weak and volatile manner in the short term. The polyester bottle chip market is in a weak and volatile state, with supply-side quotes showing mixed trends. The supply-side开工率 is relatively low, and market supplies may tighten. Downstream terminals maintain rigid demand, and market sentiment is cautious. The polyester industry chain's current demand is not optimistic, and it generally follows cost fluctuations. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On July 7, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 2.15% and 1.87% respectively compared to the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha and xylene decreased slightly, while the spot price of p-xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port increased by 0.28% [1] - PTA: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract remained unchanged, while the settlement price decreased by 0.72%. The closing and settlement prices of the near-month contract showed small changes. The domestic PTA spot price and related price indices decreased, with the CCFEI PTA outer - disk price index down 1.40% compared to July 4. The near - far month spread and basis decreased [1] - PX: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract increased by 0.18%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.77%. The closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased by 0.78%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged, and the CFR China Taiwan price increased by 0.24%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread increased, while the basis decreased [1] - PR: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract increased slightly by 0.03%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.44%. The closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract remained unchanged. The market prices of polyester bottle chips in the East and South China markets decreased, and the bases decreased [1] - Downstream: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester filaments and polyester chips decreased on July 7, 2025, except for the polyester short - fiber price index which remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%. The PTA factory load rate increased by 3.75 percentage points to 80.59%, while the polyester factory load rate decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 87.30%. The bottle chip factory load rate decreased by 3.22 percentage points to 71.93%, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 61.22% [1] Production and Sales - On July 7, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios of polyester filaments and polyester short - fibers increased by 9.00 and 1.00 percentage points respectively, while the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips decreased by 20.00 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA plant reduced its load by about 5% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation state, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan/ton (-0.59%) and an intraday trading volume of 863,500 lots. PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,684 yuan/ton (-0.62%) and an intraday trading volume of 161,300 lots. PR follows the cost movement, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,872 yuan/ton (-0.37%) and an intraday trading volume of 38,300 lots. The international oil prices ended higher. The polyester industry chain's current demand is not optimistic, and PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to move in a volatile manner [2]