周度经济观察：供需政策平衡中-20250708

Group 1: Economic Policy and Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side adjustment in China is expected to be milder compared to the previous round, but may take longer and involve a wider range of industries[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand[4] - Historical experiences indicate that large-scale capacity reduction leads to a rapid decline in production factor costs and enhances the competitiveness of leading enterprises, ultimately stabilizing prices[5] Group 2: Demand-Side Measures and Consumer Confidence - Recent policies, such as birth subsidies and trade-in incentives, are being implemented to alleviate short-term financial pressures on families and enhance their willingness to have children[6] - Fiscal transfer payments are most effective in boosting long-term consumption when targeted at financially constrained households, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume[7] - A stable and sustainable economic growth requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, ensuring policy strength and predictability[8] Group 3: Asset Prices and Economic Impact - The interaction between rising asset prices and the real economy is still in its early stages, with recent "anti-involution" policies potentially improving fundamental expectations[9] - The ongoing expansion of active credit is crucial for maintaining a strong performance in equity markets, with a focus on the stability of financing balances across society[11] - Historical cases show that asset price increases can lead to recovery in the real sector demand, but also risk tightening regulations if bubbles form[10] Group 4: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June's non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, slightly above expectations[13] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable labor market[16] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly decreased, with anticipated cuts of approximately 54 basis points later in the year[17]