贵金属数据日报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - 15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - 15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Price Changes: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - 15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - 15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - Spread Changes: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - July 3, 2025: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - July 2, 2025: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - Position Changes: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - July 7, 2025: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - July 4, 2025: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - July 7, 2025: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - July 3, 2025: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - Market Data Changes: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - News: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - Analysis: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].