宏观金融数据日报-20250708

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.47 with a 4.37bp increase, GC001 at 1.49 with a 5.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.51 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 1.80bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.40bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.47 with a 0.15bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.10bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3315 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Tuesday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3965, down 0.43%; the SSE 50 at 2732, down 0.33%; the CSI 500 at 5900, down 0.19%; and the CSI 1000 at 6327, up 0.24% [5] - The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures (IF) was 67470, down 46.5, and the open interest was 243305, down 8.5; for the SSE 50 futures (IH), the trading volume was 32788, down 50.5, and the open interest was 85845, down 12.2; for the CSI 500 futures (IC), the trading volume was 55201, down 44.4, and the open interest was 220939, down 6.6; for the CSI 1000 futures (IM), the trading volume was 136314, down 45.5, and the open interest was 320782, down 8.7 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets was 12087 billion yuan, a decrease of 2199 billion yuan from last Friday. Most industry sectors rose, with the power, grid equipment, household light industry, power supply equipment, diversified finance, real estate development, packaging materials, and public utility sectors leading the gains, while the biological products and medical service sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Stock Index Outlook - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, there is resistance for the stock index to break through further and it may show a volatile pattern [6] - In the long term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real - estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is yet to be finalized, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity easing expectations and changes in the geopolitical situation will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.88%, 8.92%, 5.87%, and 4.58% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 21.78%, 7.93%, 4.25%, and 1.92% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 23.17%, 15.23%, 12.77%, and 10.37% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 31.43%, 20.58%, 16.80%, and 14.00% respectively [7]