甲醇日评20250708：择机做多MTO利润-20250708

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience short - term weak fluctuations. The methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are high while downstream comprehensive profits are poor. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and take a wait - and - see attitude for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2437.00 yuan/ton to 2435.00 yuan/ton (-0.08%); MA01 in Shandong dropped from 2445.00 yuan/ton to 2422.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); MA05 rose from 2356.00 yuan/ton to 2358.00 yuan/ton (0.08%); MA09 fell from 2399.00 yuan/ton to 2392.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: The national average decreased from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2290.00 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it went down from 2455.00 yuan/ton to 2432.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2090.00 yuan/ton to 2095.00 yuan/ton (0.24%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2017.50 yuan/ton to 1995.00 yuan/ton (-1.12%) [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: Ordos Q5500 decreased from 430.00 yuan/ton to 427.50 yuan/ton (-0.58%); Datong Q5500 dropped from 490.00 yuan/ton to 487.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 490.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol in the northwest remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton; MTO in the northwest increased from 308.80 yuan/ton to 377.80 yuan/ton (22.34%); MTO in the East China increased from - 854.07 yuan/ton to - 813.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) [1]. - Methanol Downstream Profits: Acetic acid increased from 387.96 yuan/ton to 395.94 yuan/ton (2.06%); MTBE decreased from 76.28 yuan/ton to - 10.12 yuan/ton (-113.27%); formaldehyde remained at - 233.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2390 yuan/ton, closing at 2392 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 547,156 lots and an open interest of 685,709 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: Far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments are priced at 275 - 282 US dollars/ton, with reference negotiations for non - Iranian shipments at +1.6 - 2% and for other Middle - East regions at +1.1 - 2% [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. Investors are advised to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].