贵金属日评：中国央行6月续增持黄金储备，特朗普政府开始对各国设定新税率-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking eight consecutive months of increases with a recovery in the pace [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is slim, but the expected time points for rate cuts are September, October, or December [1]. Silver - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. Trump's tariff policy remains in effect [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England's key interest rate decreased by 25 basis points in May, and the expectation of rate cuts in August is rising, with 2 - 3 possible rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For investors, it is recommended to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks. For London gold, focus on support around $3,000 - $3,200 and resistance around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, support around 730 - 750 and resistance around 840 - 900. For London silver, support around $31 - $34 and resistance around $38 - $40; for Shanghai silver, support around 8,300 - 8,500 and resistance around 8,900 - 9,100 [1].