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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-7-8)-20250708
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:37

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Suggestion to exit short positions and observe [2] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral, observe iron and coal supply trends [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral, expect short-term supply reduction and mild demand decline [2] - Glass: Neutral, short-term valuation is low, observe downstream demand recovery [2] - Stock index futures/options: Suggestion to hold long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Suggestion to hold long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate, observe futures delivery impact [6] - Edible oils: Expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Expected to continue rising [7] - Rubber: Expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] - PTA: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - MEG: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - Polyester bottle chips and polyester staple fibers: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is affected by short-term sentiment, but the medium- to long-term supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply-side news and production resumption, with weak downstream demand [2] - The steel market is affected by supply-side reduction measures, with mild demand decline and balanced supply and demand in the short term [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, with high inventory and weak demand [2] - The stock index market is supported by economic resilience and reduced risk aversion, suggesting long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - The gold and silver markets are affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - The pulp market has a weak supply-demand pattern, expected to fluctuate [6] - The log market has stable prices, reduced supply pressure, and balanced supply and demand [6] - The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - The meal market is affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The live pig market has strong price support and is expected to continue rising [7] - The rubber market has tight supply, weak demand, and high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester markets are affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Short-term rebound due to sentiment, medium- to long-term supply increase, demand at a low level, and inventory accumulation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Price increase due to supply-side news, production resumption expected, weak downstream demand [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Supply reduction expected, demand mild decline, supply and demand balanced in the short term [2] - Glass: No substantial positive factors, high inventory, weak demand, short-term valuation low [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Economic resilience supports the market, risk aversion eases, suggesting long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are stable, narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Weak supply and demand, cost support weakens, expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Stable prices, reduced supply pressure, balanced supply and demand, observe futures delivery impact [6] Agricultural Products - Edible oils: Sufficient supply, weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Strong price support, expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Tight supply, weak demand, high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester: Affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9]