Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:36Report Overview - Report Name: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macroeconomically, Trump's tariff letters will impose 25% - 40% tariffs on 14 countries starting August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut by three months to September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with the processing enterprise's operating rate decreasing year - on - year. Zinc prices are weak, downstream consumption is gradually weakening, inventory shipment speed is slowing down, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventory is stable, while overseas LME zinc premium is rising and inventory is continuing to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, both long and short are cautious, and the lower shadow of the negative line indicates support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,683 US dollars/ton, down 52.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 253,618 lots, down 7,783 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,300 lots, down 5,731 lots. Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 7,949 tons, down 122 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons, and the LME inventory is 110,600 tons, down 1,725 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,040 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.05 US dollars/ton, down 0.41 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 63,600 tons, up 2,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The newly started housing area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the completed housing area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 15.1%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 15.09%, up 0.3%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 8.57%, up 1.16%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 14.96%, up 0.2% [3]. 3.7行业消息 - Trump has sent tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing 25% - 40% tariffs on imported goods from these countries starting August 1st, and has extended the counter - tariff suspension period to August 1st. The EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut by three months to September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. China has newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for a work - relief program to promote employment and income growth for key groups [3].