甲醇日报：港口基差持续疲软-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The Iranian methanol plants are further resuming production, leading to an increase in overseas supply. The port basis is weak, and there is still a large pressure of arrivals in July. There are intentions to conduct maintenance on externally - purchased MTO units in late July, and the port is currently in an inventory - building cycle. However, there are expectations of winter maintenance of overseas natural gas - based methanol plants and the commissioning of externally - purchased methanol MTO units in the fourth quarter, presenting a situation of weak current conditions but strong future expectations. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows sufficient resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Includes multiple figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and import spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - Relevant figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Spreads - Figures illustrate regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [50][58] Market Data Inland Area - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 690 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). Inland methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1985 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 193 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2295 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 103 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton); Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 17 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 53 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton). The inventory of inland plants is 352,280 tons (up 10,730 tons), and the inventory of plants in the Northwest is 223,500 tons (up 18,000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 233,250 tons (down 7,450 tons), and those of plants in the Northwest are 110,400 tons (down 9,100 tons) [1] Port Area - Methanol in Taicang is 2425 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), with a basis of 33 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton); CFR China is 282 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), and the import spread in East China is - 9 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). Methanol in Changzhou is 2420 yuan/ton; methanol in Guangdong is 2435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 43 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton). The total port inventory is 673,660 tons (up 3,160 tons), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 333,000 tons (down 23,500 tons), the inventory in Zhejiang ports is 176,500 tons (up 37,000 tons), and the inventory in Guangdong ports is 120,500 tons (down 13,500 tons). The operation rate of downstream MTO is 84.60% (down 2.19%) [2] Regional Price Spreads - The spread of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 25 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread of Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 110 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan/ton); the spread of Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 120 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 170 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton); the spread of East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - For the 9 - 1 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [3]