Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to Trump's tariff threats, fiscal expansion in many countries, long - term monetary easing, and global order reshaping. Silver will have a strong - level range trading as government fiscal deficit stimulus supports demand. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term positive outlook. Zinc is likely to trade in a range, with opportunities to short on rallies. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are under pressure. Industrial silicon has a strong expectation but a weak reality, trading in a high - level range. Lithium carbonate is expected to face resistance in its rebound and trade in a range [1]. - Gold has support from Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [2][3]. - Copper is in a high - level range. Although the price is high and suppresses demand, the long - term outlook is positive due to the tight global copper mine supply and its strategic importance [7][8]. - Zinc is under pressure. With the supply of zinc concentrate increasing and demand being weak during the off - season, short - term short positions can be held, and opportunities to short on rallies can be grasped in the long term [9][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the industry enters the off - season, with costs rising and inventory increasing. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [11][12]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure. With supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to short on rebounds [13][14]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. Although demand shows signs of increase, the supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and the total inventory is still rising [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases provide support for gold [2]. - Basic Logic: Trump's new tariff plan may increase inflation risks in the US and trigger asset selling. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term investors can consider taking long positions. Silver is in a range - bound trading, with strong support at 8700 [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, trading in a high - level range [7]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The production of electrolytic copper has increased, but high prices have suppressed demand. The global visible copper inventory is at a historical low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: After a full correction, consider taking long positions on dips. In the long term, the outlook for copper is positive. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000], and for London copper is [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices fell under pressure, testing the support at the integer level [9]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and domestic inventory has slightly increased. The downstream galvanizing enterprises' operating rate is affected by weak steel demand and is lower than in previous years [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions in the short term. In the long term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for London zinc is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded but faced resistance, and alumina prices rebounded and then fell [11]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have increased slightly, inventory has turned to accumulation, and demand has entered the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite is high, and the production capacity has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are relatively loose [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel prices rebounded but faced resistance [13]. - Industrial Logic: For nickel, the cost of overseas nickel mines provides support, but inventory has accumulated again, and demand is in the off - season. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure may reappear [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream production cut changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 125000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and followed the double - silicon trend [15]. - Industrial Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and total inventory is at a new high. Although demand shows signs of increase, it is difficult to verify the authenticity. The supply side has both maintenance and复产, and the output increase is in line with expectations [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to trade in a high - level range, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance. The focus range is [63000 - 64000] [16].
中辉有色观点-20250708
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:48