Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:45Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report Core View - Macroscopically, Trump's tax letter will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries such as Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates by three months, possibly in September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. Fundamentally, there is significant uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures, while the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rates of some producers decreased, and the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, tin prices have corrected, the spot premium has been maintained at 400 yuan/ton, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm at low prices has increased, leading to a slight decrease in domestic inventories. Overseas inventories continue to decline, LME cancelled warrants have increased, and the premium has risen. Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60, and the price has returned to the previous trading range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin was 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin was 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin were 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 264,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) was 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The export volume of tinplate was 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, 25% - 40% tariffs on countries such as Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, and an additional 10% tariff on any country that aligns with the anti - US policies of the BRICS countries. He also signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs until August 1st. White House officials said that specific country tariffs would not be叠加 with industry tariffs. China has newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment to carry out a work - for - relief action to expand employment and increase income for key groups [3]