化工日报：市场震荡运行，关注关税政策-20250708

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting investors to pay attention to the outcome of tariff policy negotiations [4]. 2. Core Views - The market is in a volatile state, with the crude oil supply-demand outlook being unfavorable, which exerts pressure on oil prices. However, geopolitical tensions provide some support. The gasoline cracking spread has retreated, and the demand for gasoline blending is not promising. The export of Korean aromatic blending materials to the US has declined, and the short - process PX plants are restarting due to profit recovery [1]. - PX supply and demand remain tight due to recent plant maintenance, and the PXN spread is widening. The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is slightly decreasing, and the polyester load is expected to decline in July [1][2]. - The short - fiber (PF) fundamentals are acceptable, but downstream demand is weakening. The bottle - chip (PR) processing fee is expected to recover to some extent, but the upside is limited [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][32]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [45][47][57]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, and inventory days, as well as polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, processing fee, and inventory days [68][78][82]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [85][93][96].