Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - OPEC+ has decided to increase the daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to increase by about 550,000 barrels in September. However, the increase in OPEC's production quota does not equal the increase in actual production, and the actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia intends to control oil prices, the actual production increase will be slow. Although OPEC is further lifting production restrictions, the oil price showed a trend of first falling and then rising instead of a sharp decline [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 93 cents to $67.93 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.28 to $69.58 per barrel, a 1.87% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 2.13% at 512 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August. The monthly production increase approved in May, June, and July was 411,000 barrels per day, and 138,000 barrels per day in April. Since April, the production released by OPEC+ will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the previously voluntarily cut 2.2 million barrels per day remains unrecovered. It is reported that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [1] - Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva of financial institution Phillip Nova pointed out that the continuous uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy will continue to put pressure on oil prices. The current oil price has declined under pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production in August more than expected. The only factor supporting the oil price is the weakening of the US dollar [1] - Ukraine used long - range drones to attack a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The refinery is one of the major oil - processing companies in southern Russia [1] - The first round of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha ended without an agreement. The Israeli negotiation team did not have sufficient authorization to reach an agreement with Hamas [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said it is "highly likely" to list a new oil pipeline to the west coast of Canada as a national construction project. A few weeks ago, the Canadian Parliament passed Bill C - 5, which simplifies the approval process for national important development projects [1] Investment Logic - Although OPEC decides to further lift the production limit by 550,000 barrels per day starting from August and will completely lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production limit before October, the oil price did not drop significantly. The actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia, and if it wants to control the oil price, the actual production increase will be slow [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events; upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]
原油日报:欧佩克进一步上调生产配额,油价先抑后扬-20250708
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-08 08:50